Scenarios are increasingly being used as a tool to inform climate policies at the global down to the local scale. Tyndall Manchester provides innovative methods and tools for long-term scenario analyses. Primarily, we explore pathways to avoiding ‘dangerous’ climate change in terms of strategies for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions but we are also looking at strategies for how to adapt to the consequences of climate change, more specifically relating to agriculture.
Whilst having a UK focus, we consider the wider global climate impact of actions at the UK level; largely in understanding how our behaviours play a role in global climate change through trade, including international transportation.
Tyndall Manchester currently undertake scenarios related to transport, energy, and agricultural sectors, but also scenarios at the economy-wide level bringing this detailed sectoral knowledge together.
We use a combination of qualitative participatory approaches and quantitative techniques to
- build an evidence base to inform climate strategies/ policy,
- explore their technical, political and social feasibility,
- quantify their impacts in terms of emissions; and
- identify the potential political, economic, institutional etc, levers that could achieve the desired pathway.
Tyndall Manchester strategies are not limited to technological change, but behavioural changes are vital to a low emissions future.
Developing scenarios in a participative manner promotes stakeholder ownership, enhances knowledge exchange, and provides a forum for thinking creatively about future innovative solutions to specific policy challenges. Tyndall Manchester’s scenarios work has been funded by from diverse sources including the Co-op Bank, UK Research Councils and the Welsh Assembly Government.